The rising temperature may result in significant reduction in the Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh which is part of the Himalayan system, apart from the risk the country is facing of losing 18 per cent of its land due to the rising water level of the oceans. Terming Bangladesh one of the world’s most exposed countries to rising sea levels, a global report on Wednesday said the poorer countries would need assistance in ‘adapting to the changing climate’.

The ‘World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change’ held the advanced countries responsible for producing most of the greenhouse gas emissions of the past and insisted that they must act now to help all the vulnerable nations who will be tremendously harmed by climate change.

‘Bangladesh is already doing much to reduce the vulnerability of its population,’ observed the report, referring to the community-based early warning system for cyclones and a flood forecasting and a response programme fashioned by local and international experts. ‘But the scope of adaptation [to climate change] is limited by Bangladesh’s resources — its annual per capita income is only $450,’ said the report the World Bank, prepared and released before the December meetings on climate change in Copenhagen.

The report said that global warming by 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial age temperatures — the minimum the world is likely to experience — could result in permanent reduction in the Gross Domestic Product of 4-5 per cent in South Asia. The region’s water resources are likely to be adversely affected by climate change through its effect on the monsoon, which provides 70 per cent of annual rain in a four-month period, and because of the melting of the Himalayan glaciers.

‘Rising sea levels are also of an important concern in South Asia, which has long and densely populated coastlines, agricultural plains threatened by saltwater intrusion, and many low-lying islands,’ added the report. It mentioned that Bangladesh has a long history of cyclones and floods, and these could become more frequent or intense. Explaining the implications of climate change with regard to Bangladeshis, the report said that families in the country ‘are deciding whether to rebuild their homes and livelihoods after yet another flood — once occasional, now every few years — or to take their chances in Dhaka, the grossly overcrowded capital.’

The World Bank’s report, however, pointed out, ‘If developed countries act now, a “climate-smart” world is feasible, and the costs for getting there will be high but still manageable.’ ‘The countries of the world must act now, act together and act differently on climate change,’ said the World Bank’s president Robert B Zoellick. He acknowledged that developing countries were disproportionately affected by climate change — a crisis that is not of their making and for which they are least prepared. ‘For that reason, an equitable deal in Copenhagen is vitally important,’ said the WB’s chief.

According to the report, the negative impact on agricultural productivity is one of many factors behind the greater vulnerability of developing countries. ‘Yields of major crops in India are projected to decline by 4.5 to 9 per cent within the next three decades, even allowing for short-term adaptations,’ it pointed out.

The negative implications of such climate change of rising poverty, and shrinking Gross Domestic Product, are predicted to be enormous, given the projected population growth and high dependence of livelihoods on rain-fed agriculture in the South Asia region. Solving the climate problem requires transformation of the world’s energy systems in the coming decades, said the report, estimating the requirement for research and development investments to range from $100 to $700 billion a year. ‘There are real opportunities to shape our climate future for an inclusive and sustainable globalisation, but we need a new momentum for concerted action on climate issues before it is too late,’ said the World Bank’s president.

-New Age